As the latest universal two-child policy taking effects in China, the birth rate has been incredibly expanded, and the problem of the aging population seems less serious. This article will analyze the possible demographic distribution in 2020, and also the problems and benefits of it.
This is the diagram that reveals the birth rates in China, which apparently shows an enormous growth of the birth rate. There is likely to be a youth bulge based on the trend, though it seems to be a less aggressive aging population for less than one-tenth in a whole for about 3 years. The population keeps growing slowly from 1.321 billion to 1.380 billion. Although the birth rate keeps growing, the aging population will still increase to nearly one fifth in 2020 as predicted.
Although there seems no big problem with “youth bulge”, the heavy education cost may result in higher taxation in the future. Furthermore, the increasing youth generation may also lead to harsh education competition. For instance, our parents’ generations seldom had extra-curriculum courses while teenagers are filled with them. This kind of stress may lead to depression and even suicides, which will bring negative effects to society. More likely our government will optimize this system by building more qualified schools. In contrast, the youth bulge means a lot more workforce in our society, for which we embrace a more creative and dynamic social environment.
When the young generations grow up, elderly people will probably be better-taken care of. Our people will have more time to relax due to cheaper labor cost and this will enhance the family bonds between generations. Our society will become thriving and prospering.
Just like every coin has two sides, a larger population means less land and jobs. The government will have to cope with housing problems and unemployment. Housing prices will increase and people may not able to afford new houses. The social health system may face real challenges due to high medical costs.
Despite the situations we discussed above, there seem more problems to deal with because of the universal two-child policy. In the coming years, Chinese youngsters must work hard to fulfill The Chinese Dream.